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Time for a pause
Nifty has nearly achieved
our target of 5200 (missed by few points) on Muhurat
Trading (Diwali , 18 Oct 2009) . Bulls have tried hard
to take it to the next level but failed in their every
attempt to break past 5200 and the month of October
ended up with the beginning of a corrective leg .
On 23 July when Nifty
fell below 5000 , we have issued an Exit Call for Short
Term and declared Sell on rise market and after Closing
below 4940 , which was our trend reversal point for mid
term , we have declared the trend reversed (
Click
here to See those reports) .
If you check the Daily
Charts given above , Nifty has maintained Higher Top and
Higher Bottom pattern , since 4940 was last higher
bottom , closing below this bottom has reversed the
trend for the Target 4550 for mid term .
After break
below 4940 , we do not see any support till 4640 - 4660
range . So
a significant
bounce can only be expected from 4640 - 4660 range
. The length of the bounce can range from 3% to 4% from
these levels - i.e.
maximum till
4800 - 4850 .
So the traders who want to play for a bounce should only
enter near 4600 - 4650 with a quick exit view either
above 4800 or stop below 4600 .
The Final bottom
of this corrective leg should be in the range of 4380 -
4520 .
We would like to mention
few points with this view - 1. In heavy volatility
, our levels can have a difference of around 1%
and
2. when this corrective leg gets over ,
we expect a
V-SHAPED recovery
So we'll come out with
our next view when this corrective trend get reversed
and the mid term trend get an upward bias. |