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Pattern Analysis

By - Alok Kumar
Author is our Founder & Director , Head of Research. Succesfully predicted the market using his own method of research , he called it "Pattern Analysis" , where he ignore all other technical indicators to make it simple for a layman and using identified patterns only , he successfully predicted the market for last few year. He is writing  book on this topic , which may get published in few months , here he shares a part of his research with us.

Date : 17 Oct 2011 / Monday / 10:46 AM

Decades of technical research history , we have seen countless successful and failed predictions. Probability underlies all predictions and a thin line separates success and failure.

"Wave Theory" is like a constitution for all technical analyst and we all know that constitutions need amendments with changing scenarios and new challenges. This field is too vast to master and probably that's the reason behind almost no work has been done to find amendments with changing times or coming out with new theory to replace outdated ones. Analyst spend years and years to master the art but no body dare to find the flaws or even discuss it in open , because this theory is so widely accepted around the world that we feel its simply a wastage of time & resources and we might be a subject of criticism/mockery among our community , because of the cut throat competition of proving ourselves the best. We are not just analyst , we are running our businesses based on our knowledge , but someone has to think beyond businesses and I dare .... I dare to be a subject of criticism/mockery ... whatever comes on the way , to establish my own theory ....which I call "Pattern Analysis"

 
 

Why Only Patterns ?

We all accept the fact that the basic tool for technical analysis is a chart. Every technical analyst first analyze the chart and every other parameter comes after charts. According to the constitution of "Technical Analysis" - wave theory , charts are drawn with a set pattern which we can analyze for future predictions.

During evolution of technical analysis , many other theories and methods got attached with charts. Different analyst interpreted the behavior in different ways and came out with different theories and tools. Some tools was widely accepted and attached , some tools were rejected as well

BUT NOTHING REPLACED CHARTS AND THE PATTERNS.

 
 
What about other parameters ?

Can anybody guide , how many parameters should a technical analyst follow ? Many people believe that for best result, we should involve as many indicators as we can. Bollinger Bands,MACD, Stochastic, Standard Deviation,ROC,RSI etc sometimes contradict each other and many times fail to provide a clear picture.

According to my studies ,with changing times and increased participation , market behavior has changed significantly in last 2 decades. Involving many indicators must have worked during some phase back in the history of stock market, but in recent past , post Globalization , market behaved in extremely indiscipline manner. When I say indiscipline , it is in context of technical indicators.

The only tool which stood firm during this phase is our basic toll - The Chart Patterns.
As per my research , without all these indicators ,with less confusion and contradiction, we can get a much better result , only with chart patterns.
 

 

Chart Patterns

There are many conventional, pre-defined or Identified chart patterns which a technical analyst follow , like, Head & Shoulder ,channels,Triangles,Double Tops & Bottoms etc. What I have noticed is , even though the popular indicators fail , Patterns always are helpful in correct predictions.

Yes , many times we have a failed pattern as well , but not as frequent as other failed indicators. Every failed pattern in recent past was followed by a sudden strong adverse conditions , resulted into failure , but other indicators failed to produce a correct prediction frequently.

Now let me introduce the most important feature of my research -

Unidentified Patterns

Last many decades we are following conventional , identified patterns for predictions - like , Head & Shoulder etc. During my research , I found , apart from these patterns , many unidentified patterns comes out in different manner , which are unconventional and not defined anywhere. These pattern can also be identified and used for predictions. Behavior of these patterns are very disciplined and reliable.

On Intraday/Daily charts , I have identified so many pattern, apart from conventional ones. These unconventional patterns work really well and repeat itself time & again to prove its existence. I am in a process of listing down those new patterns identified by me on Intraday as well as daily charts , but before I discuss those patterns with other or place it under technical experts scanner for feedback , I decided to give it some more time to test those patterns again and again.

Its a time taking process , because until and unless a same pattern repeat itself 2-3-4 times , I can not call it a pattern.

for example MIRROR IMAGES  are formed whenever HEAD & SHOULDER formed and by analyzing the one side of the levels(during fall or recovery) , we can predict the other side of the levels ( during recovery or fall) - I used it to pin point market levels during the recovery of 2008 fall , right from the bottom in Mar 2009 till Nov 2010 (Click here to see the report)

Let me introduce one of the key Pattern which I identified - "Mirror Image Pattern"

classic example of mirror image pattern emerged during 2008 fall and recovery , which was used by me during that period - and let me admit , I never used any other indicator during that phase

 

 

 

Above mentioned "Mirror Image Patter" is just one example . I have identified many such patterns which can simply be used without any other indicator to predict the market using charts.

 

 

 - Alok Kumar  ,  Director - investCraft

   alok@investcraft.in

 
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